Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Real Estate Bubble: Another Clue

For your consideration, please note a graph listing housing inventory versus sales in Phoenix over the past year and a half. I got it from this blog, where they put together similar graphs for similar cities across America. Daunting? Damn right. Discuss.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can't believe these people aren't dropping their sale prices drastically yet! Such greed!
Take my word, the effects from this will reverbrate throughout the economy for awhile. What's scary is that this real estate market probably hasn't even come close to a crash yet in the sense where these home flippers start saying 'I don't care how much I sell it for, just as long as I sell it!' I mean by reading this guy's blog it seems as though these amateur flippers are only at the stage where they'll settle for breakeven or extremely small profit.

And it really doesn't help that this bubble happened to just about the most illiquid asset there is.

Here's a prediction to look up years from now: the ONLY party out there to benefit from this bubble will be the super-super-super-rich billionaires (Donald Trump's of the world), as well as the major real estate companies, who are right now hoarding their cash just waiting for the final home flipper to 'throw in the towel' at a fire-sale price. The result would be that the real estate and land in the 'bubble towns' (Phoenix, San Fran, Vegas, etc) will suddenly be owned by a small amount of deep-pocketed REIT's and mega-billionaires who waited patiently for the general public to panic/sellout right at the worst possible moment: the bottom.

Lucky for me, by the time I consider buying my first house (3-5 years) it should be pretty close to a panicked real estate bottom.

11:25 PM, April 10, 2007  
Blogger SueJ said...

The trouble is that if the economy goes into the toilet then only the billionaires (and that ten percent of The Rich) will be able to buy the houses... so that's what they'll do and rent twelve people to a room and charge kinda what they can almost afford so they don't save any money... and we'll be working at their telemarketing firms calling each otehr trying desperately to sell gewgaws and investment insurance.
I wonder if I should buy another house just to have it :)

11:21 AM, April 11, 2007  
Blogger HRlaughed said...

Recommend, at the least, that you consider getting another house just to hold all those extra gewgaws you're sure to buy.

By the way, owning a house if and after the economy crumbles and real estate values [temporarily] tumble will not be a bad thing as long as one doesn't need to sell.

11:17 PM, April 11, 2007  

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