Another Reason to Like Portland
On Wednesday, May 10 the Portland City Council will be voting on a resolution that acknowledges peak oil and appoints a task force to make recommendations to the Council on how to prepare for peak oil.
A committee of Portland Peak Oil drafted the initial language and had several meetings with government officials to bring the resolution to this point.
You better believe I'll be keeping my eyes peeled. Stay tuned.
Update: An article in Tuesday's Portland Oregonian can be read here. Be sure to note the paragraph that describes the 400 gallons of oil that go into the average American's diet each year. Also note the percentages of where that oil is used.
Update to Update: Portland's City Council unanimously voted to create a task force to study means and methods to mitigate the local effects of Peak Oil. Good for them. Will be interesting to see what kinds of solutions get recommended... and whether they get implimented. Read more about it here.
posted by Howard at 1:47 AM
5 Comments:
i don't really like the bell curve that is presented on the portland peak oil website. if when we talk about peak oil we're really just talking about a bell curve, then the logic of peak oil becomes circular: at the peak of production, there will be the most oil ever until it starts going down.... are you kidding me? if the idea is that the curve is not bellicious but drops off dramatically in a mass hysteria sort of way, then maybe it's something worth mentioning. but seriously, if it's just a bell curve where after the peak, oil production and reserves go down (the definition of a peak) then it's completely circular and not worth my time. who ever really thought this idea was genius? there can seriously be no other way in a mathematical function representation. i know the big deal is that we're perhaps at that point, but as for the ingeniousness of the idea.... In fact, I think H.H. knew all along. Just look at that monument! It's fortelling peak oil!!!
basically what i'm saying is the idea, "What goes up must come down," is not a new one, so it bothers me when someone passes it off as such.
All graphs of oil and natural gas production for all oil and natural gas fields, whether they be singly or regionally, have followed a bell curve where the downside of the curve typically represents a drop in production of 5% to 8% a year. And what makes the global bell curve for oil and natural gas productions so important is:
1) global civilization is totally dependent on oil and natural gas for every damned thing;
2) laws of supply and demand determine price;
3) the US and Canada are particularly vulnerable to price fluctuations because their food production and distribution systems, city planning and zoning, and transportation infrastructure have been designed assuming infinitely continuing low energy costs;
4) supplies are so tight now that even the smallest variation on the supply side of oil is resulting in huge price leaps in the New York Merchantile Exchange market for oil;
5) each dollar rise in the cost of barrels of oil on the NYME represents about five more cents at the pump so that if oil goes up to $100/barrel from the current $70/barrel, the cost of gasoline goes up another $1.50/gallon;
6) China and India have been ramping up their industrial production and automobile usage over the past five years so dramatically that global bidding wars for increasingly limited supply are inevitable and will force the price of oil over $100/barrel by this summer and gas at the pumps to over $4 and perhaps higher. You will see lines at gas stations and fights and talk of rationing and war -- same as in the 70's -- before 2006 is through.
Americans will be forced to change the "American Way of Life"--despite Dick Cheney's proclamation that it is "non-negotiable"--over the next five years. It will be so traumatic for millions that political pressures will build on Washington D.C. to "do something... anything!" that they will. Sans wisdom.
Over the next ten years, the world will change into something barely recognizable by today's standards, despite the lack of drama demonstrated by a mild downslope of a Peak Oil bell curve. We're not talking about Armageddon, although things could degenerate into scattered warfare, additional genocides, and possible even regional nuclear exchanges. But we are talking about something far worse and lasting than the Great Depression of the 1930's.
Don't repent -- that's not hardly what I'm saying -- prepare. Be the ant, not the grasshopper.
i agree with your conclusions based on the graph, i'm just pointing out that the graph is the most obvious thing in the world, such that it's impossible to disagree with. to pass a bell curve off as something novel is ridiculous. i guess the only argument is that we're at an inflection point and not a maximum. i'm sure the ostriches try to ignore the whole situation and hope it IS an inflection point....
i have a friend who got a patent earlier this year for a nanocomposite material for fuel cell application, so for his sake i hope we do spiral helplessly downslope. he'll be rich and i'll be there with hands open palms up. and the american way of life will not have been negotiated, except maybe for the lack of horsepower in cars.... it's closer than you think Howie, and it'll happen. It's going to be an amazing time to be alive to see the transition, which is where I suspect your cataclysmic warfare and famine will come into play as that transition will only be born out of such chaos. But we'll come out of it.
If there's a basket in which to put all your eggs, Howie, it's SCIENCE!!!!
Science AND stock in oil companies.
Oh yeah, and a decent bicycle. Very thoughtful answer, BTW, Mr. Anon, even if a bit sparce on the capital letters.
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